In this series of lectures about the history of weather forecasting, I’ll start by examining its early history – that’ll be the subject of today’s talk.
Ok, so we’ll start by going back thousands of years. Most ancient cultures had weather gods, and weather catastrophes, such as floods, played an important role in many creation myths. Generally, weather was attributed to the whims of the gods, as the wide range of weather gods in various cultures shows. For instance, there’s the Egyptian sun god Ra, and Thor, the Norse god of thunder and lightning. Many ancient civilisations developed rites such as 【Q31】 dances in order to make the weather gods look kindly on them.
But the weather was of daily importance: observing the skies and drawing the correct conclusions from these observations was really important, in fact their 【Q32】 survival depended on it. It isn’t known when people first started to observe the skies, but at around 650 BC, the Babylonians produced the first short-range weather forecasts, based on their observations of 【Q33】 clouds and other phenomena. The Chinese also recognised weather patterns, and by 300 BC, astronomers had developed a calendar which pided the year into 24 【Q34】 festivals, each associated with a different weather phenomenon.
The ancient Greeks were the first to develop a more scientific approach to explaining the weather. The work of the philosopher and scientist Aristotle, in the fourth century BC, is especially noteworthy, as his ideas held sway for nearly 2,000 years. In 340 BC, he wrote a book in which he attempted to account for the formation of rain, clouds, wind and storms. He also described celestial phenomena such as haloes – that is, bright circles of light around the sun, the moon and bright stars – and 【Q35】 comets. Many of his observations were surprisingly accurate. For example, he believed that heat could cause water to evaporate. But he also jumped to quite a few wrong conclusions, such as that winds are breathed out by the Earth. Errors like this were rectified from the Renaissance onwards.
For nearly 2,000 years, Aristotle’s work was accepted as the chief authority on weather theory. Alongside this, though, in the Middle Ages weather observations were passed on in the form of proverbs, such as ‘Red 【Q36】 sky at night, shepherd’s delight; red sky in the morning, shepherd’s warning’. Many of these are based on very good observations and are accurate, as contemporary meteorologists have discovered.
For centuries, any attempt to forecast the weather could only be based on personal observation, but in the fifteenth century scientists began to see the need for 【Q37】 instruments. Until then, the only ones available were weather vanes – to determine the wind direction – and early versions of rain gauges. One of the first, invented in the fifteenth century, was a hygrometer, which measured humidity. This was one of many inventions that contributed to the development of weather forecasting.
In 1592, the Italian scientist and inventor Galileo developed the world’s first 【Q38】 thermometer. His student Torricelli later invented the barometer, which allowed people to measure atmospheric pressure. In 1648, the French philosopher Pascal proved that pressure decreases with altitude. This discovery was verified by English astronomer Halley in 1686, and Halley was also the first person to map trade winds.
This increasing ability to measure factors related to weather helped scientists to understand the atmosphere and its processes better, and they started collecting weather observation data systematically. In the eighteenth century, the scientist and politician Benjamin Franklin carried out work on electricity and lightning in particular, but he was also very interested in weather and studied it throughout most of his life. It was Franklin who discovered that 【Q39】 storms generally travel from west to east.
In addition to new meteorological instruments, other developments contributed to our understanding of the atmosphere. People in different locations began to keep records, and in the mid-nineteenth century, the invention of the 【Q40】 telegraph made it possible for these records to be collated. This led, by the end of the nineteenth century, to the first weather services.
It was not until the early twentieth century that mathematics and physics became part of meteorology, and we’ll continue from that point next week.
Complete the notes below.
Write ONE WORD ONLY for each answer.
听前预测：定位词 floods、many cultures、ceremonies；提示词 invented；词性：名词。此处是一个并列结构，所以应填入一个与 ceremonies 并列的名词，但是该词位于定位名词之前，所以要做好对答案的预判。
题目解析：此题较难。首先，定位词 many cultures 的同义表达在文中出现了不止一次，并且在定位词 floods 出现后，有大量的篇幅都在介绍古代与气象有关的神明，这就很容易导致很多同学在听的过程中迷失。many cultures 的同义表达 many ancient civilisations 再度出现，引出了答案句：“Many ancient civilisations developed rites such as dances in order to make the weather gods look kindly on them.”，其中 developed 对应题干中的 invented；rites such as dances 与题干中的 …and other ceremonies 为同义表达，可知 dances 是 ceremonies 的其中一种，因此答案为 dances。此题的同义替换较难，如果不知道 rites 即为 ceremonies 的话，很难推断出答案，且文中的句式表达（例举形式）与题干中的句式表达（并列形式） 也存在一定的差异。
听前预测：定位词 sky；提示词 observe、interpret、ensure；词性：名词。此处为一个不定式结构，表示 observe and interpret the sky 的目的是人们为了确保什么，所以应填名词。
题目解析：此题较难。定位词就在答案句中：“…observing the skies and drawing the correct conclusions from these observations was really important, in fact their survival depended on it.”。该句的定位并不难，但是需要从句意中推敲出答案：题干中对目的的表达为一个不定式，而文中表达的是 in fact their survival depended on it，这里的 depended on it 等同于题干中的 observe and interpret the sky to ensure，it 指代的是题干中的 observe and interpret the sky；也就是说，A depended on B 即 do B to ensure A，因此答案为 survival。
听前预测：定位词 650 BC、Babylonians；提示词 weather phenomena、such as；词性：名词。此处是一个由 such as 引导的例子，所以应填一种气候现象。
题目解析：此题容易定位，但并不容易得分。定位词原词重现后，紧跟着答案句“…produced the first short-range weather forecasts, based on their observations of clouds and other phenomena.”，此处出现了和 31 题一样的考点，即例举句式和并列句式之间的替换。同学们只要掌握了句式 A such as A1 等同于 A1 and other A（其中 A 与 A1 是一种包含关系，即 A 涵盖了 A1）的这类同义替换，以后就会解答此类题型了。
听前预测：定位词 300 BC、calendar；提示词 made up、a number of；词性：名词。此处缺 少 calendar 的组成成分，题干意为“中国有一个由……构成的历法”。
题目解析：此题容易定位，但并不容易得分。定位词原词重现处即为答案句：“…by 300 BC, astronomers had developed a calendar which pided the year into 24 festivals, each associated with a different weather phenomenon.”，此处需要理解 A pide sth. into B（A 将……分割成 B）等同于 A is made up of B（A 由 B 构成），如果清楚了这一层关系，则不难得出答案为 festivals。此外，题干中的提示词 a number of 被文中的具体数字 24 所替代。
听前预测：定位词 haloes；提示词 also；词性：名词。此处为一个并列结构，因此只要在文中找到与 haloes 并列的名词即可。
题目解析：此题不难，定位词和提示词都在答案句中原词重现，即“He also described celestial phenomena such as haloes—that is, bright circles of light around the sun, the moon and bright stars—and comets.”。此处需要理解 A and B 的并列结构，有时候 B 并不会立即出现在 A 之后，为了混淆视听，文中出现 A 之后，往往还会有一长串内容对 A 进行解释，然后才会提及 B。所以当题目考查并列结构时，同学们需要注意何处为描述性内容，何处才是与已知信息同级的并列因素。此题的另一个难点是 comet 的拼写，这个词并不常见，容易出现听到但写不对的现象，所以大家平时需要积累 comet 之类的天文类核心词汇。综上所述，此题答案为 comets，注意此处为复数形式。
听前预测：定位词 proverbs、colour；提示词 e.g.；词性：名词。此处为一个 A of B 的名词短语结构，故应填名词，意为“……的颜色”。
题目解析：此题容易定位，但同义替换比较隐晦。答案就在定位词 proverbs 所在的句子中：“Alongside this, though, in the Middle Ages weather observations were passed on in the form of proverbs, such as ‘Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight; red sky in the morning, shepherd’s warning’.”，其中抽象的定位词 colour 在文中被替换为 red， 用来修饰限定 sky，因此答案为 sky。此题对于习惯定位词原词重现的同学们来说，无疑是设置了一个陷阱，定位词的同义替换词和答案在文中两次出现，如果局限于干等原词 colour 的话，必将跟答案失之交臂，故考试的时候，切忌干等定位词的原词重现。
听前预测：定位词 15th century、value；提示词 recognised、first time；词性：名词。此处为一个 A of B 的名词短语结构，故 value of 后面应接一个名词，意为“……的价值”。
题目解析：此题容易定位，但需要理解相关的同义替换方可得分。答案句为“…in the fifteenth century scientists began to see the need for instruments.”，不难看出文中的 see the need for… 与题干中的 recognised value of… 为同义替换，因此答案为 instruments。
听前预测：定位词 Galileo；提示词 invented；词性：名词。此处应填 Galileo 的一项发明。
题目解析：此题较为简单，答案紧跟在定位词 Galileo 之后：“In 1592, the Italian scientist and inventor Galileo developed the world’s first thermometer.”，其中 developed 与 invented 为比较直白的同义替换，因此答案为 thermometer。thermometer 这个词 并不常见，容易出现听到但写不对的现象，所以大家平时需要积累 thermometer之类的核心词汇。
听前预测：定位词 18th century、Franklin；提示词 identified、movement；词性：名词。此 处为一个 A of B 的名词短语结构，故 the movement of 后面需要接一个名词，意为“……的运动”。
题目解析：此题较为简单，答案紧跟在定位词 Franklin 之后：“It was Franklin who discovered that storms generally travel from west to east.”，其中discovered 与 identified 为比 较直白的同义替换，generally travel from west to east 可理解为题干中的 movement，因此答案为 storms。
听前预测：定位词 19th century、locations；提示词 data、be sent…by；词性：名词。此处为一个 be sent by sth. 的被动语态结构，故应填某种传送媒介。
题目解析：此题定位简单，但得分较难，重点在于在听前预测的过程中，是否有将空缺内 容，即“一种传送数据的媒介”，分析清楚。定位词都在答案句中原词重现，即 “People in different locations began to keep records, and in the mid-nineteenth century, the invention of the telegraph made it possible for these records to be collated.”， 其中 …made it possible for these records to be collated 对应题干中的 data could be sent by…，因此答案为 telegraph。